The year of the pig (kinda)

No, we’re not talking about the Chinese New Year, we’ve already had that. But even though this isn’t the year of the pig in the Chinese Zodiac, a new age for China’s pork industry has begun! The new cycle started in mid 2022, following a year with great losses for the industry. This new era, however, will see less price volatility and more government monitoring, according to a new report from Rabobank.

• From January 2003 to June 2022, there have been five full, three to four-year cycles, but now the market is more consolidated, economic growth is slower, and there is greater social and environmental focus in China.

The main drivers of the cycle are policies, new industry structures, and the current transitional period of economic and technological development, sustainability demands, consumer trends, and social issues. 

• All of this should lead to greater governmental oversight and further consolidation, the report suggested.
• The maintenance or removal of COVID-related policies will also impact the economy.  

Market opportunities will be available to both local and global players when it comes to productivity development (genetics will be a core strategic development area), market consolidation (competition among large players will rise), and international trade (the country will continue to import pork as an important supplement to its domestic supply).

• Spain, Brazil, Denmark, the US, and Canada were the main sources of imports during the first semester, and will continue to be. Brazil has the potential to further increase its share, though.